Canton Public School Enrollment
Projections/Actuals
Grades K-12

Since 1990 Canton has experienced a 6.9 percent growth in overall population. This growth brings new students into the school system, placing pressure on the facilities and resources necessary to continue the Town’s reputation for having an excellent public school system.

Overcrowding at the Intermediate and Junior/Senior high Schools has reached a critical stage, as demonstrated by the recent “Warning Status’ given the CJSHS by the NEASC. Students at Canton Intermediate School are tutored and tested in hallways, doorways and the cafeteria; meetings with the school social worker and the speech pathologist are conducted behind a screen where anyone can hear the students’ and parents’ conversations.

Based on information provided by noted demographer, Dr. Chung of H.C. Planning Consultants Inc. (HCPC) in a January 2000 report entitled Canton School Enrollment Dynamics and Projections 2000-2009, and by Dr. Peter Prowda from the State Department of Education, the Canton Board of Education has compiled the following overview for the citizens of Canton.

Enrollment Factors

Enrollment growth of a public school district is directly related to various factors, such as:

(1) The number of births to residents
(2) The number of new homes being constructed
(3) Used home sales
(4) The percentage of resident students attending nonpublic schools

District Enrollment Projections

Overall, K-12 enrollments in the Canton School System were projected in the January 2000 Report by HCPC to expand by 8.4%. That rate of growth would add 128 students before the end of the decade, rising from 1,530 (1999) to 1,658 (2009).

HCPC and the State DOE essentially agree on overall rising enrollment trends for the next several years but differ on when the enrollments will peak and drop off, as indicated in the chart above. The two studies further predict that enrollments at the Canton Jr/Sr High School will continue their current growth through this decade. This year’s graduating class is roughly 100 students. There are currently 130 high school freshmen, and 144 students in the fourth grade.

Canton Junior/Senior High School

The chart below demonstrates that both the State DOE and HCPC see enrollment growth at the CJSHS throughout the decade. Enrollment will peak at 828 students in 2009-2010, increasing stress on the capacity of the facility to provide a quality educational program.

The school has a very clear shortage of space. Classrooms are overcrowded, administrative offices are inadequate, and the science department does not have enough labs. Space shortages were identified from the gym to standard classrooms. Enrollment in grades 7-12 is expected to increase 27% over the coming decade, straining resources even more. The average classroom population was 27 in the 1999-2000 school year and will be 33 if projections are correct through 2009.

Canton Intermediate School

The Canton Intermediate School is the smallest and oldest of the three schools in Canton, opened in 1935. The school presently does not have an adequate number of classrooms, the rooms are too small for the typical classroom population, and the administrative rooms are too small for the school population. Overcrowding is anticipated to worsen through the 2006 school year as the size of the student body increases and the average classroom population increases from 22 to 25 students.

The chart below illustrates varying opinions as to when and at what figure the CIS enrollments will peak. The State DOE projects the peak in 2002 and HCPC projects the peak in 2005. For two consecutive years (2000 and 2001) both HCPC and State DOE projections were exceeded by CIS actual enrollments. In 2001, the school had already reached the enrollment level projected by both for 2003 (407-408 students).

Cherry Brook School

Assessing kindergarten enrollment is an important factor in making projections for the district because kindergarten populations move through the school system over a period of 10-12 years.

HCPC projects that kindergarten enrollment will not decline and will be able to maintain more or less the 1999 level (110-120 students) in spite of the low level of births in Canton.

Kindergarten enrollment is affected not only by the number of resident births in the preceding five years, but also by the net migration of preschool children over the five-year period preceding the entry into the kindergarten… Since 1996 there has been an increasing level of net in-migration, with more preschool children moving into Canton than moving out. (HCPC Jan 2000 report excerpt)

Cherry Brook School K-3 enrollments were projected by HCPC to peak in 2001, decline by 2005-2006, and then begin to rise again. While HCPC’s projection of 511 was higher than actual enrollment for 2001-2002, the State DOE’s projection of 467 was lower the actual enrollment of 491 students. (As you can see here and elsewhere on this web site State DOE figures are typically more conservative regarding projected enrollments.) According to a facilities analysis report the school is somewhat overcrowded.

Note: Bar charts and enrollment figures do not include students in the pre-kindergarten or Canton Parents as Teachers (birth to age three) program nor a full-day kindergarten. For a study of resident births and migration figures, see the next section on Births & Kindergarten Enrollments.

Births & Kindergarten Enrollment

Assessing kindergarten enrollment size is crucial in making projections because kindergarten enrollments will move through the school system over a period of 10-12 years. (HCPC Jan 2000 report excerpt)

In 1996, Kindergarten enrollment grew 6.5% over the previous year and remained at that level four years in a row through 1999. HCPC has projected that if this trend continues, kindergarten enrollment will not decline and will be able to maintain more or less the 1999 level (110-120 students) in spite of the low level of births in Canton. In 2001 K enrollments were actually 129 students, higher than HCPC’s projection of 120.

TABLE 3 COMPARISON OF RESIDENT BIRTHS & KINDERGARTEN ENROLLMENTS CANTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS, 1988-1999 - HC PLANNING CONSULTANTS, INC.
SCHOOL YEAR	BIRTHS 5 YRS AGO*	ENROLLED IN PRIVATE SCHOOL K	NET PRE-K IN - AND OUT-MIGRATION	ACTUAL K ENROLLMENT
1988-89	117	-4	-8	105
1989-90	113	-4	3	112
1990-91	127	-1	-12	114
1991-92	116	-1	-10	105
1992-93	123	-4	-2	117
1993-94	133	-3	-22	108
1994-95	113	-8	-2	103
1995-96	116	-5	-3	108
1996-97	121	-6	0	115
1997-98	120	-9	4	115
1998-99	120	-10	5	115
1999-2000	101	-10	24	115

Enrollment Impact of New Homes & Used Home Sales

Whether a home is used or new has a different impact on enrollment. According to the 1999 Canton Household Survey, current homeowners who purchased a used home had 0.541 K-12 students at the time of home purchase while the previous homeowners had an average of 0.588 school children at the time of selling their homes. Since annually 150-175 used homes were sold each year, this yielded a loss or net out-migration of 7 to 8 students per year. (HCPC Jan 2000 report excerpt)

On the other hand, when a new home was built and sold, 0.788 school children moved in but no one moved out, representing a net gain. Assuming that annually 50 new homes are sold, the number of children generated by the new homes is 39 K-12 children each year, resulting in a potential increase in 10 years of 270 students. (HCPC Jan 2000 report excerpt)

However, HCPC conservatively projects an increase in the Canton School System of only 128 students over 10 years.